Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Quo Vadis India ?

The Parliament and the whole nation is perplexed over FDI in Retail.

FDI has become more varied in recent years and cash inflows have shifted from natural resources, infra and export driven manufacturing to different areas like Tourism, Retaill, construction and off shore services.

FDI to twenty developing economies amounted to USD 45 billion in the retail sector. Significant FDI was received by Brazil, Poland and Thailand in the Retail sector.

In this field, India has been slower. Organised retailing has grown from 10 to 40 percent in Brazil and 20% in China, while in India it is only 2%, in the last decade.

For the global retail chains, India with its huge market amounting to one trillion dollars in retail, is an important destination. The Indian retail landscape is changing, with the rise of the middle class ( 500 million ). The upper and the lower middle class now prefer to buy branded goods from standard showrooms and there are going to 1,50,000 such super market stores in India within 15 years ! The smaller cities are emulating the metros and Retailing has been hailed as one of the surise industries !

"India is the second most attractive retail designation globally, among thirty emergent markets" says A. T. Kearney, awell knownInternational Management Consultant

Unorganised retailing constitute 98% of all retailing trade. Now big domestic players like Reliance have entered the field and is expanding in a big way.

WalMart is partnering Bharti and Carrefour is going to partner Landmark.

Why are the global retailers interested in India ?

Strategic Location and Geography

Enjoying unique geographical advantage, India is strategically located in Asia will links to all markets. Lord Curzon said " Whoever masters India will become the master of Asia and of the whole world". Lord Curzon celebrated India's importance in the Empire and called her the Jewel in the Crown. Total Area 3287 K sq km and 7000 km of Coastline.

Versatile Demographics

With a population of more than 1.2 billion and diverse cultures, India is a land of all seasons. A versatile population of rural and urbal markets. 700 million rural and 500 million urban. The foreign retailers want a slice of the big pie !

Vast growing economy

With a GDP growth hovering around 8-9%, India is rising along with China. Forex reserves more than 300 billion. With a rapidly growing infrastructure, India has all the ingredients of a rising economic super power and is tipped to be the third largest economy by 2050 by GS. ( PWC Report says by 2012, India will surpass Japan and become the third by GDP PPP ).

To become the third largest economy

India will become the third largest economy by 2050, according to Goldman Sachs. Here are the projected GDP figures.

Forecast of GDP ($ Trillion)

Country 2010 2050

China 3.0 44.5
U.S.A 13.3 35.2
India 0.9 27.8
Japan 4. 6 6.7
Brazil .7 6.1
Russia 0.8 5.9
U.K. 1.9 3.8
Germany 2.2 3.6
Italy 1.3 2.1

Astrologically the present turbulent phase caused by adverse Jupiter and Saturn will pave the way for a brighter 2012, after May, when Jupiter moves over to Taurus. In the 11th Jupiter will be benign and the effects of globalisation will be felt in a positive way. India is sure to overtake Japan as the third economic power by 2012 !

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Hurdles for foreign retailers in India !

Because of the uncertainty of the FDI in multi brand retail, retail stocks are down 10%. Pantaloon is 196, Shoppers Shop, Trent all are down.

Retailers like WalMart, Carrie Four and Tesco will have to contend with India's poor warehouse space, unreliable transport links and chronic lack of cold chain storage.

This is where local knowledge comes in. Local players with established supply chains can get lucrative deals, as the race for one of the largest untapped retail markets is on. It can mean a windfall for players like Pantaloon, Shopper's Stop, the Tata Group and Trent, industry analysts say.

Countering the argument that the move will phase out small shopkeepers, the Government has stipulated that the foreign players must source 30% from SMEs, invest a minimum of 100 million and spend half of that on back end infrastructure.

WalMart and Co may love to sell to the 1.2 billion Indians, but they will have to tackle India's logistical headaches and will have to rely on local expertise.

"If some of them want to throw dollars, burn some cash to build it, they can," said Future Supply Chain's Singh."We are ready made for them. They can use us."

As bandhs and hartals, initiated by the Communists and the saffronites go on in India against the entry of foreign retailers, India is poised for Retail Revolution.

Despite the immense problems faced by the foreign retailers, India's one trillion dollar market is going to change. The retail landscape will change and let us hope that Retail will do to India what electronics did for Japan !

Shoddy roads, minimal cold storage capacity and a myriad of state regulations and taxes will plague WalMart, Tesco, Metro and others. The initial stages will be difficult.

Traditional supply networks use hand pulled wooden carts more than refrigerated freight wagons. Hence 30 percent of India's 200 million tonnes vast fruit and vegetable production goes waste.

"India cannot be seen as easy," Viney Singh, MD of Max Hypermarkets."There are some players that have been in the retail business for more than 10 years, and till date there is no hypermarket player that has made any money."

"Global retailers have expertise from around the world, but in India they will have to develop it," said Future's Singh. "They will all have to go through the learning curve on their own."

The Communists and the saffronites are against this entry of foreign players. They are calling for boycott. Tomorrow is a bandh day, a day of rest, called by the Opposition parties. In Kerala, even some Congress Ministers are against the move. The whole country seems to be in turmoil. We do not think the problem will be solved by a single day's bandh. All work will come to a standstill tomorrow. There may be furthur bandhs. The Kerala Merchants Association has called for a virtual boycott. So also CPI, CPM and BJP. Their argument is socialistic, that the move will hurt the small players. The demerits of the move are highlighted.

The top 30 Retail giants ( turnover in billions of dollars USD )

WalMart 256 billion USD
CarreFour 79
Ahold 63
Metro 60
Kroger 53
Tesco 50
Target 48
Rewe 44
Aldi 41
ITM 37
Safeway 35
Schwarz 33
Walagreens 32
Auchan 32
Aeon 30
Ito Yokado 30
Edeka 29
Sainsbury 27
Tengelmann 27
LeClerk 27
CVS 26
Casino 25
Kmart 23
Delhaize 21
Loblaw 18
JC Penney 17
Coles Myer 17
Daiei 17

Astrologically, India is going through a tough phase, with Saturn in the adverse 4th and Jupiter in the unfavourable 10th. Exports have slumped to 19 billion last month. IIP is down. The Sensex is down.Food inflation is hovering at 10%. The Rupee hit 52 mark against the dollar. So for some more months ( till Jupiter leaves Aries ), the Indian atmosphere will be turbulent.

Thursday, November 03, 2011

The Alpha Numeric System of Mathematica Indica

Known as Paral Sankhya, the Alpha Numeric System was developed by Vararuchi. It is also known as Katapayadi, as 1 represents the letters Ka, Ta, Pa and Ya, whose corresponding digit is 1.

Number Letters

1 ka ta pa ya
2 kha tta pha ra
3 hu da bha la
4 gha da ba va
5 nga na ma sha
6 cha tha sha
7 chha dha sa
8 ja dha ha
9 jha ddha
0 nja na ksha

The Value of Kaa ki ku ke and ko was 1

31 was represented by Kala

Kala is ka + la = 31 ( The digits are counted from the right )

and 351 by Kamala
Kamala = ka + ma + la = 351

Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Elemental Numbers in Mathematica Indica

Sanskrit poets used Elemental Numbers in their poems. As eyes are 2, two represents eyes. As the Vedas are four, four represents the Vedas. Netra Netra ( eyes , eyes ) means 22 and Veda Veda means 44.

Here we give the correspondence between numbers and the Elements

1 - Earth, Moon
2. Eyes, hands, feet, ears
3. Worlds, trinitarian unity, three yogas, three vedas.
4. Vedas
5. Sense organs.
6 Rithus or the six seasons.
7. Rishies
8 Directions, eightfold prosperity
9 Digits, numbers
0 Ether

10 - Ego and its ten heads.
11 - Rudras
12 Months, Zodiacal Signs
13 Universe
14 Vidyas, Manus
15 Lunations, thidhis
16 King
17 Athushti
18 Treatises astronomical, mythological
19 Athi Dhruthi
20 Nails
21 Uthkruthi
22 Akrithi
23 Vikruthi
24 Gayathri
25 Principles
27 Constellations
33 Deities

The digits for the letters are written, counting from right to left

For example,


Bham = Stars = 27
Nandan = 9
Agni = 3

Bhanagnagni = 3927