Monday, March 31, 2008

Sensex crashes 530 points; to 15840 !

Adverse Jupiter strikes again and the Sensex crashes !

The Dow dropped on 28th, as a profit warning from J C Penney raised concerns about slowing consumer spending. Credit related problems plagued the US markets.

In India, ICAI asked companies to disclose losses incurred due to derivatives trade, in order to make the new accounting standard - the AS 30 - mandatory from 1 Apr 2011. This may hit the FY2008 of Indian firms.

IT pivotals took a beating, on fears that the recesion in the US may affect their performance. Infy lost 6.74% and slumped to 1423, Satyam to 391, Wipro to 440 and TCS to 814 !

Banking scrips also declined. ICICI Bank slumped to 790, HDFC Bank to 1316 and SBI to 1628.

Asian markets were trading lower today. Hang Seng declined to 22840, Nikkei to 12525 and Shanghai Composite to 3586 !

Cairns India net loss at 25 cr. Infy falls to 1425. Cairns to 215. HCL Tech to 257. HDFC Bank to 1337.

Jupiter moves to Capricorn on 9th December. So investors, beware !

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Recession in US till mid 2009 !

Last recession in the US was in 1980 and it lasted for 16 months.

History repeats itself and this recession ( Warren Buffet says we are already in Recession ) may last till mid 2009.

As per Bell's interconnectedness theorem, all parts are interconnected in Physics. Same Law when applied to markets, means that all markets are interconnected. More so in a globalising scenario.

Now the Impulse Phase appears to be Bearish and the Corrective Phase appears to be the pullback in the Bear Phase. People make money during the Impulse Phase and lose it during the Corrective Phase. ( Yesterday I met a man who made 300,000 rupees during Boom. He did not sell and held on and all his profit had been wiped out now ).

If Dow Jones Theory is true, then this Downtide can have serious repercussions. All markets will be affected.

Inflation in US and India is alarming.

Oil and Gold are up. Real Estate has been affected in US but is booming in India, at the moment.

So let us brace ourselves for Recession. A global recession. Let us hope that this will not be a global Depression !

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Homo Animal Irrationale ! ( Man is an Irrational Animal )

Man is an irrational animal - said Russell. How correct he was ! Look at the stock markets. Dont they exhibit irrational behaviour.?

Secondary markets taken in isolation and as a closed system is basically a zero sum game. That is, if you buy ten stocks, you make profit in five and loss in five and the ledger shows zero profit !

Now human beings, as defined by Russel, are irrational. It is human being who is responsible for the Uptide of the Dow and the Sensex. Bullish sentiment drives the market up. Look at the Sensex. It moved from 2900 to 21232 ! Now it is the Downtide.

A boom means that the economy has extended itself, and a recession becomes due in order to restore it to its original balance. During boom, all people look at the market through rose-tainted glasses, thinking that the boom will last forever. They forget that

If Spring comes, can Winter be far behind !

It is the Uptide, triggered by a good GDP, FII investment, improving forex reserves ( now at $ 300 billion ) which catapulted the Sensex to 21232 ! As per the Dow Jones Theory, higher levels cannot be sustained. Winter cannot be far behind !

During boom, all sorts of bullish news reach the market. Once recession starts, bearing news shall start pouring in. Like ICICI making a 1000 crore loss and L & T incurring a 92 crore loss. These are major scrips and well, you can imagine the investor sentiment on hearing these news. Added to such news are the subprime crisis in the US, the US economy moving towards recession & the oil price almost $ 110 per barrel !

So, let us face it, we are now witnessing a Downtide. The market is sentimental, not fundamental. Irrational beings drove the Sensex upto 21232 ! Let us see to which level they will pull the Sensex down !

The Dow Jones Theory states that the Primary Movement is all important. The Impulse Phase is now bearish. People make money during the Impulse Phase and lose it during the Corrective Phase.

Our advice is to lie low, and take the 9% bank interest. This is not the ideal time to invest in the Shock Market !

Friday, March 21, 2008

Bear Strategies -

By: Jonathan Swift, 2008-03-21

Bear Strategies

Many people believe that US will inevitably fall into recession levels; that basically means that no matter which stocks you own, they will probably go down, as it has happened over the last 3 months.

Bear Strategies

Many people believe that US will inevitably fall into recession levels; that basically means that no matter which stocks you own, they will probably go down, as it has happened over the last 3 months.

Microsoft, the software giant, has fallen 30%. Google, decreased its value from 747 to 430, almost 50%! In general, the Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq and S&P deceased an average of 30% in only three months.

If you think the worst hasn´t yet arrive, the following are excellent options for making money in bear markets.

1- ETF´s that replicate the inverse of some sectors

• SKF, ultra short financials, seeks for results that are as twice as the inverse of the Dow Jones US Financial Index

• QID, ultrashort against nasdaq 100

• DOG, ultrashort against Dow Jones

• REW, ultrashort against the tech sector

My personal favorites are SKF and REW, since recession generally affects in a deeper way to financials and tech stocks. Nevertheless, they are subject to intense volatility.

2- Depreciation of the Dollar and Commodities
• FXE, reflects the price of the euro. If the dollar depreciates against the euro, this index will gain
• FXF, swiss franc versus dollar
• FXY, yen versus dollar
• DIG, ultra oil and gas, gains value as natural gas and oil increase its value
• GLD, simillar to DIG but with Gold
The first three belong to the world bonds family, as they are known, and are non-diversified.

Recession generally involves that commodities decrease it´s values, so this isn´t the best choice for it. But they function very well because investors tend to place their money in commodities replacing stocks. Besides, if the FED continues to lower the rates, it is very likely for the past world bonds to gain value.

3- Finally, between my favorite bear strategies, but less aggressive than the previous options, buying anti-cyclical stocks is a valid option. These tend to be the beverage, health, pharmaceutical and consumer sector.

• JNJ. Johnson & Johnson is a very solid company, with net cash (more cash than debts), increasing dividends and excellent management.

• KO. Coca Cola, has a very good past performance, with similar characteristics to JNJ. Both of them are some on the options that guru Warren Buffet, actually the richest man on Earth, decided to invest in.

• PHG. Philips, has an incredible PER of just 6,5 and is growing fastly.
There are some more examples, but I stated only three nice anticyclical stocks.
Therefore, investors should know that they can make many no matter if we are in a bear or bull market.

Bear Strategies Quick Stock Analysis

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

What Is A Mutual Fund? Reduce Risk And Maximize Returns

- By: Noel Swanson, 2008-03-18

Trust me, you will do much worse if your not investing in a mutual fund. It certainly will not make you the next Warren Buffet, but if you are looking for a safe investment, you have selected the right investment vehicle. More importantly, once you know what a mutual fund is, you will earn greater returns as you position yourself to diversify your investment portfolio.

Gaining Popularity

Mutual funds have gained popularity in the recent past as more novice investors are familiarizing themselves with what is a mutual fund. Today, most investors who know just about anything about investing have made investments in mutual funds because it is easy and you really do not need to be an expert on as to what is a mutual fund to invest your money wisely.

In learning what a mutual fund is, you will discover it has four advantages. They allow you to professional manage you money, they provide liquidity, they minimize risk through diversification, and the fees for investing are low.

When you start learning about mutual funds you will realize that professional fund managers manage the funds. Their objectives are to keep investing your money to yield the greatest return. What's more, you will realize that paying for such professional expert is expensive and you are getting the advise at very low fees. More importantly, mutual funds will offer you liquidity. You will be able to sell and buy anytime you want, as long as the stock market is open. That, is could you imagine selling a peace of real estate? How liquid is that?

As you learn more about what a mutual fund is, you will be excited at the level of diversification involved. Mutual funds are well diversified because they are invested in hundreds of stocks, money markets, and bonds. As you can well imagine, how could one person invest in all of this to achieve the level of diversification. You can't hence, the reason mutual funds are a great investment vehicle. Furthermore, because mutual funds get the advantage of large scale investments, their fees are low and range between two and three percent.

Before you invest in mutual funds, make sure you check John Caldwell's excellent free articles on advantages of mutual funds

Advantages Of Mutual Funds: You Must Know Them

- By: Noel Swanson, 2008-03-18

If you are wondering why this funds are increasing in popularity, the simply answer is investors are understanding the advantages of mutual funds. There are numerous advantages and this article will focus on five advantages.


What is diversification? Simply, it is mixing different investments within one investment portfolio. More over, by investing in stocks in different markets and offsetting them with bonds and money market instruments , you can considerably minimize the performance risk of any security within your investment portfolio.

By purchasing a mutual fund you are directly diversifying your assets portfolio without having to commit lots of money to reach diversification

Economies of Scale

What is economies of scale? Simply put, the more of one item you by at a store the cheaper it becomes per unit. For example, if you were to buy one bottled water at a dispensing machine, it would cost you more if your were to buy a dozen bottled water at the super market. The same hold true when buying securities. For this reason, Mutual Fund companies are able to purchase large amount of securities, hence reducing their transaction costs. This results in a much cheaper transaction cost for the investor when buying mutual funds.


As an investor, it is quite hard for me to buy a lot of stocks with a couple hundred dollars. Because mutual funds come in smaller denominations, it is easier for me to start investing with minimum amount of money.


This one is easy, your are able to buy and sell your mutual funds as fast as you want, as long as the stock markets are open. Could you imagine trying to sell your real estate property quickly? I can't. Buying and selling your mutual funds is fast.

Professional Management

Mutual funds are managed by professional money managers. These professionals possess lots of experience and someone has done considerable research on the fund you are about to invest in. As a result, you do not have to invest any time in the research. More over, these professionals are here to ensure you are maximizing your return while minimizing your risk.


The advantages of mutual funds make this investment vehicle an attractive one, hence the reason they have increased in popularity. Novice to expert investors should consider including mutual fund investment as part of their investment portfolio. This will ensure you are well diversified and will minimize your risk.

The more you can learn about mutual funds the greater your understanding will grasp the advantages of mutual funds. Focus on mutual funds and you will see a steady growth in your investment portfolio.

Before you invest in mutual funds, make sure you check John Caldwell's excellent free articles on mutual funds basics

Monday, March 17, 2008

Sensex below 15 K, as it crashes 700 points !

We were talking about being washed away by the Downtide and how correct we were.

The Sensex is below 15 K and this has jolted many.

Our advice is this. This is the Downtide of Dow Jones Theory.

The Impulse Phase was bullish so far, as the Sensex touched 21 K. Not it is the Downtide or rather the Impulse Phase is now the Bear Phase.

There may be pullbacks and if the Sensex goes up by more than 1000 points, sell off and lie low for the time being !

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Middle class in India has arrived

July 02, 2005

The middle class in India has the sense that it is coming into its own; that it has acquired the numerical strength (300 million and more, if you use a fairly loose definition) to make the Indian market matter even in a global context; and to demand that their issues be addressed when elections come round.

The cacophony on television, the visible shift in focus of the general newspapers (out with coverage of city slums, in with coverage of shopping malls), the rush to start new airlines and the obvious international interest in India, all say the same thing: the middle class in India has arrived.

Didn't Indian airline companies account for close to half of all the new Airbuses ordered at the Paris air show? QED.

Is it that open and shut, or is there room for doubt? Looking at how the political system does not respond to the need for basics (like clean water and reliable power) would straightaway belie the claim that the middle class has political clout, but what of the other posers?

As always, the NCAER (or National Council of Applied Economic Research) survey of households gives us interesting answers to these vital questions.

It is a shock to discover, for instance, that despite the evident emergence of a strong middle class, barely 10 per cent of all households have life insurance cover--traditionally the first form of savings for anyone with a reliable income flow and with dependants.

And medical insurance is available for barely 1 per cent of all households!

There is worse to come. Only 2 per cent of households have credit cards (so much, then, for the vaunted advent of plastic money). Even that basic item in a middle-class household, the refrigerator, exists in only a sixth of all households in the country (probably because only a third of rural households have a domestic electric connection!).

It might be as much of a surprise to know that half of all the TV sets sold in the country are either black and white, or small (i.e. 14-inch) colour sets.

The only items of truly mass consumption remain daily consumables like cooking oil and washing and toilet soaps (which should really be classified as necessities, not options), followed some way behind by shampoos.

Among consumer durables, the ones used most often are not the stuff of contemporary middle class legend, and are either table/ceiling fans or bicycles. The first category sells about 37 million each year, the second about 25 million.

In other words, what appears a normal lifestyle to the average city youngster working in an office is completely abnormal for the majority, in both towns and cities (just as it is completely abnormal to speak and write in English -- only about 6 per cent do that).

From this, it is a short leap to yielding to the obvious appeal of CK Prahalad's thesis, that your "fortune lies at the bottom of the pyramid"; in other words, if you want to make big bucks in the Indian market, you had better serve customers with really low-cost goods and services.

Certainly, the evidence of the mobile phone industry and of cable TV bears this out; both expect their customers to pay no more than a few hundred rupees every month, for a fairy nominal cost, and they add enormously to the quality of life and to productivity.

The NCAER projections till the end of the decade do show, however, that for almost any category of product the market will double in terms of annual sales.

Some will do even better, while others will grow slowly. So most businesses can be said to have a good future if they can find their customers. That means more airports, more flights, many more cars. . . the full works.

That's because the size of the middle class itself will grow sharply in the coming years. But while there will be plenty of reason to celebrate the Indian party, the NCAER projections show that even in 2009-10 the middle class will be an island in a larger ocean of non-consuming classes.

Time we got a little impatient with the pace of change and economic reform?

Article Source :

Thursday, March 13, 2008

The Downtide washes away all !

DLF has come down to 600 !

As we have remarked in our columns, the Downtide is as fierce as the Uptide !

The Bear Phase, the Downtide, has already started in the Indian stock markets. Investors and speculators should exercise caution and prudence while investing.

Remember, the Recession Phase is followed by a Contraction Phase.

The Dow is well below the 12 K mark. More than 200,000 houses are up for sale in US. This may signal a global recession.

All Asian indices are down.

The Downtide is dangerous indeed !

Dow Jones Theory is not wrong !

The Boom is likened to an Uptide.
The Recession is the Downtide.

Now the Sensex has fallen from a high of 21232 and it now a Downtide. The subprime in the US, the rising price of crude, India's deceleration, the rising rupee - all these are factors that led to the Downtide.

The Downtide is very dangerous. Look at Suzlon, which was languishing at 1300. Now it is less than 300 ! Look at the investors who did not sell L&T at 4200 ! Now it is at 2700, a loss of 1500 points. Or ICICI Bank, which went upto 1300. Now it is 870 odd !

One can be washed away by the Downtide. So please exercise prudence and restraint, while investing.

The Dow opened today 120 points down and is now less than 12 K.

Americans are not worried about a Recession, they are worried about a Depression !

Sensex crashes 700 points !

Bankex, Realtex, Gasex, Capital Goods ex all are down, as fears of a global recesssion following a recession in US, takes its toll of the bourses!

We were right to caution our readers about the recessionary phase gripping the market now. The reasons are not far to seek. Astrologically, it is 6th Jupiter. Financially the price of crude and the subprime crisis in the US. Over 200,000 houses are up for sale in US.

Hope the real estate market in other countries is not affected by this slowdown in the US.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Stock Market: Can You Invest Direct and General Utilities

- By: Sibusiso%20m. Maseko, 2008-03-12

If you have a favorite company, like the Walt Disney Company, Coca Cola or other brand names in the United State you may be able to implement a Direct Stock Plan to purchase stocks on a regular basis. You can review the list of stocks in your local library or check out the company you are interested in by accessing the company web site.

One advantage of a company that allows a private investor to purchase stocks directly this would allow you to set up a pay check withdrawal each pay period for the purposes of the stock plan. There are various advisory services that can assist you in locating companies that offer this direct stock purchase plan. I would suggest that you find companies you are interested in a make an inquiry with investor relations.

It will astound you the number of very good companies that will allow you to buy stocks direct by setting up a plan. The ranges of possibilities include; utility companies, fast food stocks, entertainment and retail stocks.

Utility investments

Some utility companies employ a combination of energy producing resources. Some rely on coal, hydro electrical plants and the occasional nuclear plant. Many rely on their natural gas reserves and electricity contracts with their producers to provide power to their customers. In effect the utility is a reseller of power sources.

AEG is a 17.7 billion dollar market cap company. It has been a consistent performer for over 30 years and its major institutional investors read like a who's who on Wall Street. It is better than 93 percent of all stocks listed on the S& P 500. The stock is a consistent performer and sells in the range of $40 to $51 for the last year. In November, 2006 the price was in the high $30 range, but has moved to the $40 ranges in recent months. It consistently issues a small dividend. It currently sells for $44.48 a share and should rise to its first target of $49 with ease.

Two good diversified utility companies are Integrys Energy Group stock ticker TEG and Alliant Energy that trades under the ticker LNT. There is a price difference in the companies, but both utilities are multi-billion dollar companies. Both have the blue ribbon groups of institutional investors.

Let's access more guidelines on starting a business and other business related issues through this link Business Information Guide

Monday, March 10, 2008

Sensex at 15923 !

With L& T announcing losses to the tune of 92 crores, the scrip has come down to 2721, from 4200 !

All countries fear a recession in the US. The Sensex is at a low ebb. Talks about India and China being insulated are being eroded.

on the positive side, Forex reserves have crossed $300 billion.

The negative news that US had lost 63000 jobs cast its shadow on the market. The fears in all countries that US is moving towards a recessionary phase took its toll on the bourses.

Realtex is down by 20% and Bankex by 17%.

The Dow is well below 12 K. The Dow has come down by 3% last week. The Sensex lost 1603 points, Hang Seng 1830 points and Nikkei 820 points.

2008 will be a year of Recession. So exercise prudence and restraint while investing !

Friday, March 07, 2008

Sensex below 16 K, at 15985 as adverse Jupiter hits !

As we have said before in this blog, adverse Jupiter continues to hit Indian stock markets and Sensex is at 15985 !

Global cues takes their toll and alas ! Nifty and Sensex are down.

Warren Buffett, the world's richest man according to Forbes says that we are in a recessionary phase.

Prudence and restraint have to be exercised while investing. All financials are more or less down by 2%- JP Morgan, Citi, Goldman Sachs & Lehman Bros.

Despite this , Punj Lloyd gets at 500 m order. GSS America closes at 500 !

All Asian indices are down. Han Seng is hit hard and so is Kospi and Nikki.

Thursday, March 06, 2008

Software outsourcing India: A bonus for your business

- By: Allies Harbor, 2008-03-06

The concept of outsourcing has taken over the entire world. Every big and small business organization is seeking the tool of outsourcing for faster and considerable growth. But the point lies in the fact that from where one is taking this assistance. Many countries are now booming with several service providers. However it is entirely your responsibility to make the wise decision of selecting a firm that ensures the most suitable profits for your organization. India has brilliantly marked its position among the most sought after software outsourcing destinations. With the considerable augmentation in the IT sector of the country, India is largely participating in worldwide IT network and generating fruitful results and flourishing the idea of software outsourcing India.

Whenever a business house looks for updated software or any software assistance, the first name that spurs in the mind is India. The list of reasons responsible for the popularity software outsourcing India is never ending. Let’s start with the proficient manpower. The expert professionals are intelligently qualified to develop and execute most suitable softwares. Their ideology of work is highly competent and reliable. One can hardly figure out a thing that is related to software which India outsourcing providers cannot perform. Software outsourcing in India is drawing new contours in the field of IT marketing. Moreover, India has a huge populace speaking English. This all the more makes India the more preferable than other countries which lack this aspect of language. The reason for this immense popularity is the fact that India has made and consistently making all the positive efforts to catch the pace of the latest techniques and trends that have been introduced in the arena of technology.

But still, the most beneficial factor that is available only with the software outsourcing India is its cost effective strategy. A software outsourcing firm located in India is relatively cheaper than many firms providing the same set of services in other countries. This is one factor that makes India stand out from the crowd and the most popular choice. Low charges quoted save the organizations to go over budget. With the highly skilled software professionals and simplified computerized proceedings any business can mark the level of their great expectations. According to recent research, India is proudly serving for over 40 per cent of the total software outsourcing services.

However, before letting out your entire project to any software outsourcing firm, it is highly advisable to verify and consider its status and work efficiency in the market. Lack of knowledge, poor skills and inadequate backup facility of the vendor may cause numerous issues if the project is once assigned. Make sure that you get associated only with the skilled outsourcing firm. In fact, it is easy to inquire about the reputation of any firm through their client’s response and previous work records. India is loaded with remarkably efficient software outsourcing companies, so all you have to do is pick and choose. If you are looking for a more cheap solution try for the upcoming or recently established firms that promise quality work.

Allies Harbor is a writer and writes articles on various topics including outsourcing. To know more about Accounting outsourcing,Business Process outsourcing,India Outsourcing Accounting, Software outsourcing India visit us ifrstaffing

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Subprime Crisis hits Indian banks and ICICI Bank tumbles

ICICI Bank tumbled to 933, on news that she had lost $274 million, due to the subprime crisis in the US.

The market sentiment was weak and the market, when I write this, has fallen by 323 points to 16.3 K

We had warned readers about the machinations of Sixth Jupiter. He is tormenting India. Indian agri growth is down to 2.6. Mining is down to 3.4. Even GDP has fallen to 8.7 %

The Sensex has lost heavily, and in two days has lost 1200 points !

Exercise caution and prudence while investing !

Monday, March 03, 2008

Sixth Jupiter strikes again and Sensex crashes 800 odd points !

As we had anticipated, 6th Jupiter had struck!

The Sensex down by 800 odd points and Nifty by 250, the Index is on a southerly course.

Dow fell again and people are anxiously awaiting today's performance.

The populist budget presented by the FM, has negative repercussions. The 15 billion dollar farmer loan waive off puts constraint on Indian banks and the Bankex is down by 3%. Punjab National Bank and other bank stocks are down heavily.

IT scrips are also down. There is retrenchment in some major IT companies.

The Rupee is up.

The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett says that we are in Recession.

The Bankex fell by a whopping 659 points. All bank stocks are down. 6th Jupiter always creates problems and now the market has fallen by more than 5000 points. From 21232 to 16.6 K !