Sunday, January 30, 2011

$220 billion washed away

The stock investors have lost 11 lk crores in the last two months and the Sensex has lost more than 2600 points !.

Looking like a bubble which bursts every now and then, the Indian stock market, like all stock markets, is highly risky.

It rose from 3000 to 21000, then fell back to 7000 and then rose again to 21 K. It is now hovering around the 18 K mark and has lost 2600 points since Diwali.

Runaway inflation and high food inflation, lack of infrastructure, less agri produce due to climate change, lack of human resources - all these plague the Indian economy.

Political instability due to India Shaming ( widespread corruption ) has added fuel to the fire.

If Technical Analysis states that all scrips display regular and recurrent patterns of behaviour ( also the Sensex and the Nifty ), then we can say that the coming days are tough for the Indian market. Even though GDP may quadruple and the Sensex may go beyond the 50 K mark in ten years time, now we cannot see a surge in the Sensex or the Nifty for the time being.

Ms Gita Gopinath, Professor of Economics at Harvard and hailed as the successor to the Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen, feels that India has to improve infrastructure and human resources to overcome the negative traits in the Indian economy.

Food inflation ( 18%) has been brought about by Asian affluence, rising incomes and great demand and less supply. Consumerism is the main causative factor. Agri produce do not go up due to Climate Change. Lack of infra is another factor.

We have to do agriculture on lands which lie barren now, increase productivity and yield and improve vital infrastructure like road, rail and inland waterways.

The Decoupling Theory is true. Only the BRIC nations have not been much affected by the global meltdown ( Brazil, Russia, India, China ). India still could grow at 9%.
Neither the European nations nor the US have escaped from recession. Unemployment also rose in these countries. India and other BRIC nations have not been so affected, mainly because of the governmental controls and a strong domestic market. Controls are less in the developed economies. There is some control on Banks, but not on other financial institutions and they are suffering as a result. Now the US is thinking of brining in controls to save the ailing economy.

The dollar is falling now. So is the Euro. Until the dollar stabilises, gold will continue to rise. This is because China is investing in gold, because of their high dollar reserves.

In the future, the Indian presence will be felt in the economic field. BRICs will rise in the next ten years. India has the maximum working people in the age group 25-55 years. If India improves infrastructure and human resources, she may well become the third economic power in the world, by 2020 !

Astrologically, even though Jupiter in the 9th augurs well for India, she is running the period of the Sun, who is posited in the 3rd.So let India be on guard !

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Sisira Rithu, the hot summer of Kerala !

The sidereal months of Sagittarius and Capricorn constitute Hemanta Rithu. The coldness has not left Kerala. This Hemanta Rithu will be there till the 12th of February.

Sisira Rithu, the sidereal months of Aquarius and Pisces, is very hot indeed. It normally starts from the 13th of February to the 13th April ! During this sixth season of India, hot spells are normal and more than 100 people perished last year due to sunstroke.

Now it is still cold in the morning and even during midday. No need for air conditioners during this season.

Evening is also characterised by cold winds. The Sun will be transiting Sravana, Alpha Aquilae, initiating Thiruvonam Njattuvela tomorrow.

Amongst the six Rithus or seasons, Vasanta ( Medam & Edavam ) is comparitively less hot, Greeshma ( Gemini and Cancer ) and Varsha ( Leo and Virgo ) are rainy seasons, Sarat ( Libra and Scorpio ) is less rainy, Hemanta ( Sagittarius and Capricorn ) is cold and dry and Sisira ( Aquarius & Pisces ) is very hot indeed !

Correspondence between Music and Art

Herbert Read knew the correspondence between Music and Art. " All Art tends to Music", he averred. Human beings are inseparable from their surroundings. It so happens that dusk, dawn, the season, the nature, the lightning, the thunder - all these affect the mood of Man. This mood gives rise to Rasa and every possible Rasa in connection with these circumstantial surroundings has been found to be conveyed through Raga. The world of Ragas, therefore, has all the variety of Life and experiences of Man. This is so true of Indian Music. Seasons or Rithus are a dimension of the vast game of Life and Creation !

The Six Seasons of Indian Philosophy are ruled by Planets

For instance,

Vasanta Rithu is ruled by Venus
Greeshma by Mars and Sun
Varsha by the Moon
Sharath by Mercury
Hemanta by Jupiter
Sisira by Saturn

The Law of Correspondences state that the Six Seasons are related to the six Chakras, according to Kundalini Yoga. The Highest Chakra, the Sahasrara, the Thousand Petalled Lotus, is beyond Time and transcends everything. The lower six Chakras get mildly activated during the six seasons -

Ajna Chakra in Vasanta
Vishuddha in Greeshma
Anahata in Varsha
Manipura in Sharath
Swadhistana in Hemanta
Muladhara in Sisira

Sisira Rithu ( Kumbha & Meena ) is also the mango season, when mangoes are plenty in Kerala. Mangoes are used in Fish curry, in pickles and in all curries. Mango is a substitute for tamarind in curries. Mango pickles are of many types. Tender mangoes make excellent pickle and are known as Vadu Mango Pickle. Cut Mango pickles goes by the name Chethu Manga. Mangoes are dried and pickled. Ripe mangoes are eaten. With red chilli poweder, ripe mangoes are an excellent dish. Special type of pickle comes from Andhra known as Avakkai.

Tender mangoes are also pickled in brine.

India leads in the production of mangoes. 13.5 million tonnes. China is second at 3.7 million tonnes. Mango is a fruit indigenous to the Indian subcontinet and is the national fruit of India, Pakistan and the Philippines. The word mango is derived from the Malayalam manga .

Widely used in Cuisine, chutneys are made from sour, unripe mangoes. Mango Lassi, a popular drink in S Asia, is made by mixing ripe mangoes, curd and sugar. Mangoes can be eaten raw with salt. A cooling summer drink called panna comes from mangoes. Green mangoes can be used as mango salad with dried shrimp and fish sauce.

Mango is rich in phytochemicals and nutrients. Also vitamins and minerals. The antioxidant vitamins A, C and E compose 25%, 76% and 9% of the DRI ( Dietary Reference Intake ) in a 165 gms serving. Mangoes also contain Vitamin B6, Vitamin K, B vitamins and other nutrients.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

The Global Food Crisis

Food Inflation is going beyoud the common man's reach. In India, the food inflation has been underestimated at 18.4%. 33 countries have been affected by this phenomenon.

Let us analyse what are the causative factors for Food Inflation.

The main causes are

Water Resources depletion
The rising prices of Crude
Climate Change affecting Agriculture leading to floods and draughts
Population growth outstripping food growth
Global Population Growth 4%
Global Food growth 1%
Japanese and Indians consuming more proteins
Middle class Indians and Chinese eating more

So the main causes are more or less man made. Unless we control the global population, control the prices of crude, emit less Green House Gases into the atmosphere, we are in for big trouble.

The 4.4% growth recorded by the farm sector is encouraging, but this tempo has to be maintained. India has to feed 1.17 billion people and the world 6.5 billion. There are not enough resources on this planet.

The Garland Canal Project

The Interlinking of Rivers Project, proposed under the NDA Government has not taken place. The result of this project will be that the income of the farmer will be tenfold - up from 50 dollars per acre to 500 dollars per acre. If done, it will be a mega civil engineering feat. This Project envisages linking all the rivers of India via a Garland Canal and blocking the water from flowing into the sea. There are many rivers which flow into the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The water flowing into the Arabian Sea will be blocked and will be diverted to the North. The Garland Canal project can give almost 40 GW of electricity and the farmers will have adequate water. No more farmer suicides. The cost of the Project has been estimated at $ 122 billion. There is criticism by some, saying that India cannot afford such a project.

Since everything is interrelated, these factors will affect the stock market as well. We find that the market has fallen from the peak of 21.K !