Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Bull & Bear Markets

- By: Anthony Green, 2008-04-23

Simply put, bull markets are movements in the stock market in which prices are rising and the consensus is that prices will continue moving upward. During this time, economic production is high, jobs are plentiful and inflation is low. Bear markets are the opposite stock prices are falling, and the view is that they will continue falling. The economy will slow down, coupled with a rise in unemployment and inflation. In either scenario, people invest as though the trend will continue. Investors who think and act as though the market will continue to rise are bullish, while those who think it will keep falling are bearish.

What Drives Bull and Bear Markets?

What causes bull and bear markets? They are partly a result of the supply and demand for securities. Investor psychology, government involvement in the economy and changes in economic activity also drive the market up or down. These forces combine to make investors bid higher or lower prices for stocks.

To qualify as a bull or bear market, a market must have been moving in its current direction (by about 20% of its value) for a sustained period. Small, short-term movements lasting days do not qualify; they may only indicate corrections or short-lived movements. Bull and bear markets signify long movements of significant proportion.

There are several well-known bulls and bears in American history. The longest-lived bull market in U.S. history is the one that began about 1991 and is still climbing. Other major bulls occurred in the 1920s, the late 1960s and the mid-1980s. However, they all ended in recessions or market crashes.

The best-known bear market in the U.S. was, of course, the Great Depression. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost roughly 90 percent of its value during the first three years of this period. There were also numerous others throughout the twentieth century, including those of 1973-74 and 1981-82.

Predicting Bull and Bear Markets

Investors turn to theories and complex calculations to try to figure out in advance when the market will scream upward or tumble downward. In reality, however, no perfect indicator has been found.

In their attempts to predict the market, economists use technical analysis. Technical analysis is the use of market data to analyze individual stocks and the market as a whole. It is based on the ideas that supply and demand determine stock prices and that prices, in turn, also reflect the moods of investors. One tool commonly used in technical analysis is the advance-decline line, which measures the difference between the number of stocks advancing in price and the number declining in price. Each day a net advance is determined by subtracting total declines from total advances.

This total, when taken over time, comprises the advance-decline line, which analysts use to forecast market trends. Generally, the A/D line moves up or down with the Dow. However, economists have noted that when the line declines while the Dow is moving upward, it indicates that the market is probably going to change direction and decline as well.

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Thursday, April 17, 2008

MLD to invest $4.5 b in residential projects

- By: John Parker, 2008-04-17

NEW DELHI: Mahindra Lifespace Developers (MLD), the real estate arm of $4.5-billion Mahindra Group, would invest close to Rs 800 crore in its six upcoming residential projects in Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Delhi and NCR over the next 2-3 years.

With the launch of its residential project in Faridabad recently, the company entered the real estate market of North India. The real estate firm is targeting a turnover of Rs 1,000 crore in the next five years against Rs 163 crore in 2006-07.

So far, the company has completed projects in Mumbai, Pune and Chennai and is now entering the northern region. “With the launch of Chloris, the residential project in Faridabad, we made our presence in real estate market of the North.

We are coming up with a similar project in Delhi spread over 17 acres,” said MLD CEO Pawan Malhotra. He added the company is looking at expanding into other areas of the region including Chandigarh and Himachal Pradesh.

Asked about funding plans for the projects Mr Malhotra said, “We would be expanding in a phased manner. Initially, the funding would be primarily through internal accruals. It’s only when we go about de-veloping the land further, we may resort to loans and private equity.”

While work on the Faridabad project has already commenced, construction of the project in Delhi is yet to begin. Work on the two projects coming up in Mumbai and one each in Pune and Chennai are also yet to commence. Currently, MLD has a land bank of 3 million square feet for residential projects.

Published At: Indian Real Estate Blog

John Parker , the author of many articles regarding India Real Estate andIndia Real Estate Buying Selling Tips is a Realestate advisor and giving assistance to the people for indiarealestate and providing information on Real Estate Market in India.

To Make Money in the Stock Market, Follow the Stock Market

- By: Maximilian Sparrowson, 2008-04-17

Big day on the stock market yesterday...

Amid doom and gloom from everyone that can read the business section of a newspaper, International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE/IBM) reported that its earnings in the first quarter of 2008 jumped 26% to $2.32 billion. IBM even raised its earnings forecast for the year.

Another technology company, eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ/EBAY), said that it made 22% more profit in its first quarter. The stock is up 28% since mid-March.

And JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE/JPM) announced Wednesday that it was raising $6.0 billion in its biggest ever sale of preferred stock. Of course, the money will be used to shore up JPMorgan's balance sheet.

With oil prices at a record $115.00 a barrel yesterday... with home foreclosures, personal bankruptcies and defaults on loans all up sharply in the U.S., we have some very big American corporations posting excellent record-breaking profits.

What gives with the stock market?

From 2005 until the end of 2007, until I was blue in the face and until no one else would listen, my interpretation of stock market action was quite negative. While many analysts were bullish on the stock market, I took the contrarian view and was a big bear.

If we look at the S&P 500 today, it is trading at about the same level it did in 2005: An investor would have been better advised not to have invested in the general stock market during that 24-month period.

But an interesting event took place in late 2007. The stock market, and in particular the S&P 500, topped out early in the fourth quarter of 2007. After hitting a peak of 1,576.09 in October 2007, the S&P fell 20% by the first quarter of 2008.

The stock market had spoken: It had declared that the economy would get very difficult in the months ahead. And, as is always the case, the stock market was right. (As I've always said, to make money in the stock market, one needs to only follow the actions of the stock market!)

Today, the stock market is telling a different story. The S&P 500 is up 8.5% since its March lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up a huge 1,110 points since its January lows — a gain of 9.6%!

With this action, the stock market, as I have noted before in this column, is telling us that the economy will get better and that the worse may be behind it. And I'm going against the popular opinion again and taking the contrarian view that everything Fed Chief Ben Bernanke has done for the economy will result in the economic turnaround we need.

Yes, we'll hear more about home foreclosures and consumer loan defaults, but the stock market is telling us that the damage has already been done. And when you see record profits by IBM and eBay, when you see JPMorgan easily raising $6.0 billion, you get confirmation of the stock market's positive action and outlook.

To Make Money in the Stock Market, Follow the Stock Market
— by Michael Lombardi, CFP, MBA
Stock Market Investing Advice- Profit Confidential
Investment Newsletter - Profit Confidential

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Cell Phone Industry Overview in India

- By: Phanse Ashish, 2008-04-16

A lot of water has flowed under the bridge from the time that mobiles were unheard of in India to the present where they have become almost ubiquitous. Beginning from those days, Indian subscribers paid around Rs. 16.40 for a mobile to mobile call and around Rs 32.80 for a mobile to a landline call. Today, as per recent statistics, customers pay far lesser for calls and occasional text messages that add up to around Rs 300 a month and upwards.

Now that mobiles have moved into the affordable bracket, there is a great demand for additional mobile services such as mobiles, email, stock market quotes, and astrology services, just to name a few.

A recent survey pointed to the fact that for most customers, mobile phones have become an extension of their personality. Many go a step ahead to say that mobile phones define their individuality as well.

In such a scenario, it is worthwhile to compare the growth of the mobile phone industry vis-a-vis the computer industry in India. According to recent statistics, there are nearly 300 million mobile phone subscribers as compared to just around 30 million PC’s in the country. Additionally, around 8 million subscribers are signing up every month for mobile services alone.

For most individuals, mobile phones are becoming a single point of contact for the world surrounding them covering a wide range of utilities like emailing, entertainment, and banking.

More and more people are looking out for more than just talk time on their mobiles. All this is generating a lot of enthusiasm for mobile companies. A number of serious players in this industry are looking at a range of such value added services, which have the capability to boost their bottom line.

Not only are Indians enthralled, but they started spending a considerable amount on these services too. This figure amounted to around $250 million last year. This figure is expected to reach $1.7 billion by the year 2010. This is a boon in disguise for Indian cellular operators who are seriously looking forward to enhance their revenues. Currently, nearly 80% of the revenues come from services like ring tones and SMS. This makes India the second largest mobile market on earth.

The young mobile savvy generation currently feels less privileged in nearly every sector. And that’s precisely what is fuelling the growth in mobile services across the country. As the market expands but fulfilling the needs of mobile users by providing them attractive services, mobile phones are becoming a new vehicle for reaching out to the mobile generation.

Mobile content providers also visualise a big jump in their services. These include many global companies such as Google, Yahoo and MSN, which have signed up with many Indian operators like Airtel, Bharti, Vodafone, Tata, and Reliance Communications. Together, they offer a host of services based on the local and regional markets in their area of operation.

The Indian mobile scenario seems to be all set for the next stage – expansion and consolidation, but there are a few complications as well. Not all users can afford costlier services beyond messaging and talk time. What is expected is increase in the already growing user base so such services can become affordable to one and all in the long run. is an exciting new online destination and community that focuses on selling latest Mobile Phones, cars and bikes at guaranteed lowest price.

The Fastest Growing Economy in the World

- By: Maximilian Sparrowson, 2008-04-16

Surprising analysts, who had expected China's economy to start slowing this year like the economies of other countries, China reported yesterday that its economy grew by 10.6% in the first quarter of 2008.

China's economy has now grown by more than 10% in each of nine consecutive quarters. Many economists predict that 2008 will be the year China surpasses Germany as the world's third largest economy... a big feat for a country whose output per citizen is a mere $2,500 per annum.

Economic growth in China continues to be unprecedented. The country just revised its 2007 GDP, saying that its economy expanded by 11.9% in 2007, which is higher than the 11.4% GDP growth previously announced. As for continued investment, factory and property spending in urban areas shot up 26% in the quarter ended March 31, 2008.

China's economic growth has been so strong that, again yesterday, the country's central bank increased the percentage of deposits that general banks and lenders must set aside as reserves to a new record 16%.

How does China's growth affect us investors here in North America?

To cool the economy in China, the government there will need to raise interest rates further, allowing the country's currency, the yuan, to increase in value against other world currencies -- the U.S. dollar, in particular.

A higher yuan will result in higher prices for Americans buying cheap imported Chinese goods. Will we really see a difference in the prices of electronics and other goods we import from China? Not really. Even as the yuan increases, technological advancements in Chinese factories will make any increase in the cost of imported goods to North American negligible.

The big problem that I see is the continued accumulation of U.S. dollars by China. Time goes by quickly and, not too far down the road, China will be sitting on $2.0 trillion in U.S. dollars. What will it do with that money? Will China at some point want something other than U.S. dollars for the goods its ships to the U.S.?

From an economist's point of view, too much supply and not enough demand brings prices down. And that is exactly what is happening with the U.S. dollar. The long-term trend of a falling U.S. dollar (not just in yuan, but in euros, pounds and gold) is far from over. From a consumer's point of view, a lower priced dollar will make travel outside the U.S. more expensive.

As investors, since 2003, I have been suggesting that there is an opportunity for us to buy shares of quality foreign companies in non-denominated U.S. dollars. That strategy has proved itself well and profitably. I also believe that it still to be a prudent strategy, especially for investors looking at quality foreign gold stocks.

The Fastest Growing Economy in the World
— by Michael Lombardi, CFP, MBA
Stock Market Investing Advice- Profit Confidential
Investment Newsletter - Profit Confidential

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Recession, not yet,says Soros !

US not yet in recession, says George Soros.

He advises investors to go short in US & European stocks and go long in China, India and Gulf stocks !

Now gold has declined to $907 per ounce. It is better to buy Gold when it is down and sell it when it is high.

Buy cheap, sell dear !

Friday, April 04, 2008

US not in recession, says Soros

US is not in recession, says George Soros.

Inflation is on the high in both US and India. In India, it has crossed 7% and this has made the Sensex go down by a furthur 500 points. The Sensex is at 15.3 K ! What a fall from the Zenith of 21232 !

Jupiter in Sagittarius is the villain of the piece. He will move only in Dec 9, to Capricorn. So investors, beware !