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Shock Market ?

Indians lave lost 20 lk crores this year at Dalal Street. Stock Market seems to be a Shock Market.

The Sensex is now 15.6 K and people have lost optimism. The market is sentimental and not fundamental !

Of course, fundamental analysis and technical analysis will work, but experts feel that BRIC countries will come down by 20% in economic performance.



The term BRIC was coined by Jim ONeill and he feels that BRICS may be affected by the global meltdown. 2012 has been projected as a black year, a year of economic recession !

Astrologically, Jupiter in the adverse 10th and Saturn in the adverse 4th is responsible for this calamity. Even though Jove will become positive by May 04 ( that is his entry into Taurus will be good for India ), Saturn is still there with Ardha Ashatama Sani or 1/4 of 8th Saturn ! Saturn can create impediments and India's overall growth will be affected !

85% increase in Ecom Investment !

Can you believe it ? In 2011, over 364 ecom companies raised over $4.8 billion in venture capital funding. This is an over increase of 85%.

The potential of the ecom industry in India is huge and celebrities are going gung ho over it.

Criketer Zaheer Khan invested in Exclusively.in and Yuvraj Singh also. Exclusively.in had raised $18.8 million of late. Salman Khan, the Bollywood hero invested in watch showroom BeingHumanWatches.com. Actor Ajay Devgan and Sanjay Dutt invested in Ticketplease. Vatsal Shah in celebwears.com, an online portal selling celebrity clothes. Shilpa Shetty invested in GroupHomeBuyers.com, a home buying site.

Not only for monetary gains are the ecom sites eyeing, but also the fan following of their glamourous promoters. The celebrities are normally brand ambassadors, benefitting both the company and the celebrity.

Rightly so, as the Net population of 112 million is expected to become 600 million within five years, provided infrastructure is improved !

The 200,000 Crore Indian Retail Market

The allowance of FDI in Retail has stunned the country. The Opposition parties are up in arms and the PM says there is rollback on FDI.

The estimated size of the Indian Retail Market is 200,000 Crore and it will expand to one trillion within a few years. Organised Retail is only 2%. It is 20% in China.





90% of the small retailers, do not pay tax to the GoI. They operate on a small margin fo 4-7% after all their expenses and the GoI is soft on them. For over decades, they have been serving the Indian consumer and the kirana stores number 12 million. Some of them provide credit facilities and door delivery. They have been the all time fourites for the FMCG companies to introduce and promote new products. But all this changed in 2000 CE, when Organised Retail was born in India. Organised Retail, was then considered to be more costly and innovative, even by the urban consumer. But then Organised Retail has come a long way since then and India is poised for the Retail Revolution.






Organised Retailers are not competing with the kirana stores and both coexist. They compete with other organised retailers. Advertisement spend has gone up and you can see ads of the organised retailers in all newspapers and electronic media. In fact, the kirana stores have not lost business. They have become better than before due to competition.

The logic that small kiranas will run out of business is a big myth. We have one billion people to feed, dress and house and there are plenty of opportunities at the bottom of the pyramid.




Capital infusion is the biggest benefit of the new policy. 50% of the 100 milliion cap should go to back end infra and this means an FDI of 2.5 billiom. Even though the Indian players, Tatas, Ambanis or Birlas have enough capital, what they lack is intellectual capital. We have to get the know how from the international partners the ways and methods to run that business more efficiently. They have been runnning their business for years and FDI comes often bundled with technical, managerial and labour force skills.

Astrologically, as India is receiving the adverse transit influences of Jupiter and Saturn, there will be chaos and the Opposition parties are just proving that. Till May, problems may persist due to the Jovian adverse stance.

Yesterday, the stock market went up, but then we cannot take anything for granted. The current political situation in India will affect the stock market. In October, the exports have only grown 10% to 19 billion. One hopes that the 300 billion export target will be achieved this year.

Benefits of FDI in retail

The gain of consumers


Large superstores are inflation busters. In the WalMart Effect, the author Charles Fishman shows that big stores squeeze costs and pass on the gains to consumers, because of formidable competition. They had contributed to the sustained low inflation in the US. Similarly modern supermarkets can tame the inflation tiger in India. They can create jobs, prevent wastage and improve logistics. Which sane person will oppose them?

India's 28 b retail sector will grow by factor of nine within ten years. India's archaic retail sector cannot cope up with the rising demand. Inbuilt inefficiencies and wastage in distribution and storage account for 40%, which does not reach consumers. Fifty million children are malnourished. Foodgrains rot in obsolete warehouses or in transit. Wastage and loss will be avoided by companies who sole aim is profit !





A Bharti-WalMart store in India

Critics point out five major factors

India does not need foreign retails as domestic ones are doing the job well.
Independent stores will close, leading to unemployment.
Profits will go to foreign players.
The Govt has not built consensus.
Indian cities will look like their Western counterparts and morality may go down the drain.

On the positive side, Retail can boost the farm sector.

Quo Vadis India ?

The Parliament and the whole nation is perplexed over FDI in Retail.

FDI has become more varied in recent years and cash inflows have shifted from natural resources, infra and export driven manufacturing to different areas like Tourism, Retaill, construction and off shore services.

FDI to twenty developing economies amounted to USD 45 billion in the retail sector. Significant FDI was received by Brazil, Poland and Thailand in the Retail sector.

In this field, India has been slower. Organised retailing has grown from 10 to 40 percent in Brazil and 20% in China, while in India it is only 2%, in the last decade.

For the global retail chains, India with its huge market amounting to one trillion dollars in retail, is an important destination. The Indian retail landscape is changing, with the rise of the middle class ( 500 million ). The upper and the lower middle class now prefer to buy branded goods from standard showrooms and there are going to 1,50,000 such super market stores in India within 15 years ! The smaller cities are emulating the metros and Retailing has been hailed as one of the surise industries !

"India is the second most attractive retail designation globally, among thirty emergent markets" says A. T. Kearney, awell knownInternational Management Consultant

Unorganised retailing constitute 98% of all retailing trade. Now big domestic players like Reliance have entered the field and is expanding in a big way.

WalMart is partnering Bharti and Carrefour is going to partner Landmark.

Why are the global retailers interested in India ?

Strategic Location and Geography

Enjoying unique geographical advantage, India is strategically located in Asia will links to all markets. Lord Curzon said " Whoever masters India will become the master of Asia and of the whole world". Lord Curzon celebrated India's importance in the Empire and called her the Jewel in the Crown. Total Area 3287 K sq km and 7000 km of Coastline.

Versatile Demographics

With a population of more than 1.2 billion and diverse cultures, India is a land of all seasons. A versatile population of rural and urbal markets. 700 million rural and 500 million urban. The foreign retailers want a slice of the big pie !

Vast growing economy

With a GDP growth hovering around 8-9%, India is rising along with China. Forex reserves more than 300 billion. With a rapidly growing infrastructure, India has all the ingredients of a rising economic super power and is tipped to be the third largest economy by 2050 by GS. ( PWC Report says by 2012, India will surpass Japan and become the third by GDP PPP ).

To become the third largest economy

India will become the third largest economy by 2050, according to Goldman Sachs. Here are the projected GDP figures.

Forecast of GDP ($ Trillion)

Country 2010 2050

China 3.0 44.5
U.S.A 13.3 35.2
India 0.9 27.8
Japan 4. 6 6.7
Brazil .7 6.1
Russia 0.8 5.9
U.K. 1.9 3.8
Germany 2.2 3.6
Italy 1.3 2.1

Astrologically the present turbulent phase caused by adverse Jupiter and Saturn will pave the way for a brighter 2012, after May, when Jupiter moves over to Taurus. In the 11th Jupiter will be benign and the effects of globalisation will be felt in a positive way. India is sure to overtake Japan as the third economic power by 2012 !

Hurdles for foreign retailers in India !

Because of the uncertainty of the FDI in multi brand retail, retail stocks are down 10%. Pantaloon is 196, Shoppers Shop, Trent all are down.

Retailers like WalMart, Carrie Four and Tesco will have to contend with India's poor warehouse space, unreliable transport links and chronic lack of cold chain storage.

This is where local knowledge comes in. Local players with established supply chains can get lucrative deals, as the race for one of the largest untapped retail markets is on. It can mean a windfall for players like Pantaloon, Shopper's Stop, the Tata Group and Trent, industry analysts say.

Countering the argument that the move will phase out small shopkeepers, the Government has stipulated that the foreign players must source 30% from SMEs, invest a minimum of 100 million and spend half of that on back end infrastructure.

WalMart and Co may love to sell to the 1.2 billion Indians, but they will have to tackle India's logistical headaches and will have to rely on local expertise.

"If some of them want to throw dollars, burn some cash to build it, they can," said Future Supply Chain's Singh."We are ready made for them. They can use us."

As bandhs and hartals, initiated by the Communists and the saffronites go on in India against the entry of foreign retailers, India is poised for Retail Revolution.

Despite the immense problems faced by the foreign retailers, India's one trillion dollar market is going to change. The retail landscape will change and let us hope that Retail will do to India what electronics did for Japan !

Shoddy roads, minimal cold storage capacity and a myriad of state regulations and taxes will plague WalMart, Tesco, Metro and others. The initial stages will be difficult.

Traditional supply networks use hand pulled wooden carts more than refrigerated freight wagons. Hence 30 percent of India's 200 million tonnes vast fruit and vegetable production goes waste.

"India cannot be seen as easy," Viney Singh, MD of Max Hypermarkets."There are some players that have been in the retail business for more than 10 years, and till date there is no hypermarket player that has made any money."

"Global retailers have expertise from around the world, but in India they will have to develop it," said Future's Singh. "They will all have to go through the learning curve on their own."

The Communists and the saffronites are against this entry of foreign players. They are calling for boycott. Tomorrow is a bandh day, a day of rest, called by the Opposition parties. In Kerala, even some Congress Ministers are against the move. The whole country seems to be in turmoil. We do not think the problem will be solved by a single day's bandh. All work will come to a standstill tomorrow. There may be furthur bandhs. The Kerala Merchants Association has called for a virtual boycott. So also CPI, CPM and BJP. Their argument is socialistic, that the move will hurt the small players. The demerits of the move are highlighted.

The top 30 Retail giants ( turnover in billions of dollars USD )

WalMart 256 billion USD
CarreFour 79
Ahold 63
Metro 60
Kroger 53
Tesco 50
Target 48
Rewe 44
Aldi 41
ITM 37
Safeway 35
Schwarz 33
Walagreens 32
Auchan 32
Aeon 30
Ito Yokado 30
Edeka 29
Sainsbury 27
Tengelmann 27
LeClerk 27
CVS 26
Casino 25
Kmart 23
Delhaize 21
Loblaw 18
JC Penney 17
Coles Myer 17
Daiei 17


Astrologically, India is going through a tough phase, with Saturn in the adverse 4th and Jupiter in the unfavourable 10th. Exports have slumped to 19 billion last month. IIP is down. The Sensex is down.Food inflation is hovering at 10%. The Rupee hit 52 mark against the dollar. So for some more months ( till Jupiter leaves Aries ), the Indian atmosphere will be turbulent.