Monday, May 30, 2011

Monsoons to influence markets

Two major factors will inlfuence the stock markets - the monsoon and the global community prices.

Markets had recovered sharply during the latter part of the weekend, showing promise for the bulls. But then the factors mentioned above will influence the bourses considerably.

Everbody knows that the Earth's journey through the Ecliptic produces the seasons and the South West Monsoon started on May 29th, when the Sun entered the 15th degree of Taurus. Kala Varsha, as it is known, hit the southern end of Kerala on this day and it is now raining in Kerala. Rains are expected to accelerate when the Sun transits Lambda Orionis ( Mrigasira ) and Alpha Orionis ( Aridra ). Also the constellations of Pushya and Punarvasu.

An average monsoon is expected and GDP is expected to grow at 8%. The prices of crude, gold etc are a matter of concern. ( And we find that when the stock markets go down, the rupee rate for the dollar goes up. It was 52 against the dollar when the Sensex languished at 7000 levels. It was 39 when the Sensex was at its peak at 21.2 K ).

Renewed speculative activity was seen on the bourses and a heightened activity in small and midcap scrips is probable. Institutional activity seems to be unpredictable, as FIIs buy and sell at random.

Wary investores are disappointed at the uncertainty prevailing in the markets. Recent economic data does not trigger optimism. Industry observers expect the government to kickstart the reform process in the Monsoon session of Parliament to boost the economy. The negative factors are the European debt crisis and double digit inflation, which can have adverse effect on the economy.

The progress of the monsoons will influence the markets greatly, as India is an agrarian economy.

The presence of Jupiter in the adverse 10th in India's horoscope shows problems. Jove in the House of Profession indicates that India will be upgrading her infrastructure and marketing during this phase of 361 days, which is a Jovian year (Barhaspatya) . At the same time, India will be spending a lot on infra and marketing. As the nation improves, there will be problems of rising debt, rising inflation and rising deficit. However Saturn in the House of Help is good and it will boost certain segments. So a mixed time is predicted for India and the Indian stock markets.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Jupiter's Transit of Aries will bring average monsoon !

Average Monsoons are expected this year, as Jupiter traverses the hot Aries. ( Around 2200 mm of rains expected in Kerala ).

According to Astro Meteorology, the Kala Varsha or the South West Monsoon will start from May 29th and Meteorology predicts that it will start on May 31st.

The Arabian Sea Branch of the South West Monsoon or Edava Pathi will start early and the Bay of Bengal Branch of the S W Monsoon will reach Calcultta by the 8th of June. Normally SW Monsoon reaches Bombay by 10th of June.

This time there will be average monsoon on the 825 km Malabar Coast, along coastal Maharashtra, coastal Goa, coastal Karnataka and coastal Kerala. This belt receives the maximum rains and eve in the summer there are rains in Kerala, which looks always greenish !

Kala Varsha is caused by the cold winds from the Indian Ocean, which rush in to neutrallise the hot air of the Thar Desert and North India. Now Thar and N I is very hot and in Rajastan and Surat the heat is extreme. We are situated on the North of the Equator and ours is a Torrid Zone or a Tropical Zone. Hence rains come as a relief from the fierce heat and people normally ignore the devastation it brings !

India is an agrarian economy and the effects of the Monsoon on Indian economy is great. We expect that the GDP growth will hover around 8%, with an average monsoon. Last monsoon was great and we got a 8.9% growth.